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Advanced AI techniques for landslide susceptibility mapping and spatial prediction: A case study in MedellĂ­n, Colombia

Landslides, a global phenomenon, significantly impact economies and societies, especially in densely populated areas. Effective mitigation requires awareness of landslide risks, yet temporal links between occurrences are often neglected, challenging model performance due to non-stationary triggering and predisposing factors. This study presents a novel landslide susceptibility model that incorporates spatial and temporal dependencies, including landslide recurrence. We applied AI models — Naive Bayes, Linear Discriminant Analysis, Quadratic Discriminant Analysis, Decision Trees, Random Forest, and Support Vector Machine (SVM) — to a case study in Medellín, a mountainous city in northwest Colombia. Using heuristic methods, we evaluated geological and geomorphological characteristics to identify high-risk areas. Integrating temporal data from four consecutive periods allowed us to enhance estimation robustness by incorporating random effects. Our findings identify slope, stream distance, geology, geomorphology, and mean annual precipitation as key factors influencing landslide susceptibility in Medellín. The SVM model demonstrated superior performance with an accuracy of 85%, closely aligning with previous studies. This research underscores the importance of temporal dynamics in landslide susceptibility assessments, improving prediction accuracy and supporting more effective risk management.

Availability
226551.136Perpustakaan BIG (Eksternal Harddisk)Available
Detail Information
Series Title
Applied Computing and Geoscience - Open Access
Call Number
551.136
Publisher
Amsterdam : Elsevier.,
Collation
11 hlm PDF, 3.550 KB
Language
Inggris
ISBN/ISSN
2590-1974
Classification
551.136
Content Type
text
Media Type
-
Carrier Type
-
Edition
Vol.25, February 2025
Subject(s)
Machine Learning
Landslide susceptibility
Artificial intelligence models
Temporal dependence
MedellĂ­n city
Specific Detail Info
-
Statement of Responsibility
Other version/related

No other version available

File Attachment
  • Advanced AI techniques for landslide susceptibility mapping and spatial prediction: A case study in MedellĂ­n, Colombia
    Landslides, a global phenomenon, significantly impact economies and societies, especially in densely populated areas. Effective mitigation requires awareness of landslide risks, yet temporal links between occurrences are often neglected, challenging model performance due to non-stationary triggering and predisposing factors. This study presents a novel landslide susceptibility model that incorporates spatial and temporal dependencies, including landslide recurrence. We applied AI models — Naive Bayes, Linear Discriminant Analysis, Quadratic Discriminant Analysis, Decision Trees, Random Forest, and Support Vector Machine (SVM) — to a case study in Medellín, a mountainous city in northwest Colombia. Using heuristic methods, we evaluated geological and geomorphological characteristics to identify high-risk areas. Integrating temporal data from four consecutive periods allowed us to enhance estimation robustness by incorporating random effects. Our findings identify slope, stream distance, geology, geomorphology, and mean annual precipitation as key factors influencing landslide susceptibility in Medellín. The SVM model demonstrated superior performance with an accuracy of 85%, closely aligning with previous studies. This research underscores the importance of temporal dynamics in landslide susceptibility assessments, improving prediction accuracy and supporting more effective risk management.
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